报告简介：The rapid growth of internationalretail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the USde minimis rule, which exemptslow-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes thee-commerce trade using product-level tariff changes from the2018–2019 US–Chinatrade war. We examine whether tariff increases on traditional imports ledconsumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China.Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that aone-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 0.283%in panel regressions, and by 0.719% in long-difference specifications. Theseeffects imply a 4.0%–10.1% increase in e-commerce imports—substantial, yetmodest compared to the 152% overall growth from 2017 to 2019. The response isstronger in densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race.Our findings show that tariff avoidance under the de minimis rule contributedonly modestly to e-commerce growth, but other forces, such as improved platformmarketing, played a larger role.

主讲人简介：俞志宏，英国诺丁汉大学经济学院副教授、The World Economy副主编。主要研究领域为国际贸易、国际投资、中国经济等，成果发表干Review of Economics and Statistics， Journal of International Economics，European Economic Review，Economic Theory等经济学顶级期刊，并担任QuarterlyJournal of Economics等期刊匿名审稿人。