报告简介：Climate negotiations involve not only strategicbargaining but also emotional mobilization and discursive construction. Thisstudy investigates the emotional expression logic of the Group of 77 (G77) inmultilateral climate talks. Using R-based text mining and a hybrid sentimentanalysis model that combines SentiStrength with the EmoLex lexicon, we analyzedover 550 high-level speeches delivered by G77 member states at UN ClimateChange Conferences from COP24 (2018) to COP29 (2024). Poisson and negative binomialregressions with cluster-robust standard errors were employed to assess theeffects of G77 membership, climate vulnerability, and temporal trends onemotional expression. Over the study period, negotiating countries exhibiteddeclining optimism, intensifying sadness and anger, andweakening trust and hope. Compared with non-members, G77 membersexpressed stronger trust and fear, reflecting a dual logic ofinternal trust-building and external threat perception. The G77 strategicallydeploys discourses of “shared vulnerability” and “crisis of trust” to constructinstitutional trust, while leveraging notions of “existential threat” and “urgency”for crisis mobilization. Emotional asymmetry between developed and developingcountries remains a critical barrier to progress. Addressing this trust deficitrequires high-emission nations to demonstrate verifiable mitigationachievements and calls on multilateral institutions to facilitate a discursiveshift from crisis warning to resilience building.

主讲人简介：李骏，澳大利亚Curtin科技大学高级研究员，英国UCL与德国IASS研究所高级访问学者、 Advance in Climate Change Research（SCI 一区）副主编。主要研究领域为全球气候治理、能源与环境经济政策、合作与创新等。研究成果发表于Energy Policy，Climate Policy, Journal of Business Research, Environmentand Development Economics, Journal of Technological Forecasting & Social Change，Energy Economics，世界经济与政治等国内外TOP期刊，并担任Nature等多个国际期刊匿名审稿人。主持澳大利亚ARC、欧盟FP7 、中国国家自然科学基金等国际科研合作项目。